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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd