Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
